The World Bank has significantly revised its economic growth forecast for Ukraine for 2026. According to the updated October report, the expected growth of gross domestic product will be only 2%, while the previous forecast was 5.2%.
The main reasons for the revision include continued Russian aggression, low investment activity, infrastructure destruction, and a decline in agricultural exports due to unfavorable weather conditions and the partial restoration of trade restrictions by the EU. In addition, the report notes that record-high gas imports have negatively affected the current account balance.
According to the World Bank, in the first half of 2025, the value of Ukrainian exports fell by almost 5%, mainly due to a decrease in supplies to the European Union, which remains a key market, accounting for about 60% of total exports.
It should be recalled that in April 2025, the World Bank had already revised its forecast, lowering Ukraine’s GDP growth expectations from 7% to 5.2%, with the caveat that significant improvement is only possible if the full-scale war ends.
At the same time, in its new report, the institution predicts that Ukraine’s economy could grow by 5% in 2027 if the security situation stabilizes and the government is able to intensify investment programs and restore critical infrastructure.
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